Free Prop Firm Pass Probability Calculator (Monte Carlo)

Simulates 5,000 evaluation attempts with your numbers: each trade wins or loses at your win rate, the drawdown floor trails your best end-of-day balance until it reaches the starting balance, and an attempt fails at the floor or at the time limit. It runs in your browser; nothing is sent anywhere.

Estimated pass probability
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Fail at the floor
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Median days to pass
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Expectancy per trade
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Plan it with your real stats. The Combine Pass Planner turns your rules and trade history into pass probability, days to target and the losing streak that would fail you, then logs every day. All four tools: the Prop Firm Trader Bundle.

Free: the position size calculator, the trailing drawdown calculator and the Pre-Trade Checklist + Daily Risk Card.

Reading the result

Expectancy per trade = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. If it is zero or negative, no risk size passes reliably. If it is positive, smaller risk usually raises the pass rate (more losses in a row before the floor) at the cost of more days. Try halving the risk per trade and compare. Real trading has streaks, slippage and rule details this model leaves out, so treat it as a planning range, not a promise. See the prop firm challenge FAQ.

For education and planning only. Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Not affiliated with any prop firm; check your firm's current rules.